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Charter Volume (Jun 16, 2022)

June charter volume trending under 2021

Two weeks ago we showed that the YoY volume was getting closer to 2021's history. Looking at the past-two weeks, we are essentially at 2021 volume for the charter industry, with the data showing -2% MTD vs 2021.

This is for a specific set of aircraft that we believe are indicative of market patterns. As we have seen for quite some time, the Part 91 segment is showing higher YoY volume than the charter market. That said Part 91, volume is getting closer to 2021 too, but is still clocking in at 16.7% above 2021 for June MTD.

The next few weeks will be very telling. For charter, volume was up 6.6% this most recent week when compared with two weeks ago, which is largely following the historic trend line. The YoY volume for the most recent week was also less of a decrease than two weeks ago, but when the delta is less than 1%, I think that's too close to make any real predictions. When we report on the data for the full month of June on our next call, we'll have a better sense of where we are heading with the market.

Wholesale fuel is continuing to go up, but the rate is flatter than we have seen.

Through May 27th

Through June 10th

Both of the above charts were pulled from IATA's website:

The AirNav national average price for JET-A is up $0.14 from two weeks ago, at $6.84. As we have said, this indicator lags due the fact that many FBO's price based on the cost of their most recent uplift. It feels like fuel prices will continue to creep up. Russia's latest move to reduce the levels of natural gas it sends to Europe only puts more pressure on energy markets overall.

Looking at specific airports, the KTEB volume continues to be strong relative to 2021, although in May we showed +45% and so far in June we're trending at 31.4% higher YoY.

Interestingly, we're seeing YoY declines in travel to the Hamptons, Martha's Vineyard, and Nantucket. This feels like it's due to a return to working from the office in the Northeast. Last summer, teams were getting together in these second home cities and only occasionally on-site. This year it feels like that trend has reversed.

Personally, I have been in NYC much more frequently in 2022 than 2021. Last year around this time, I posted a photo from Katama, the grass strip on Martha's Vineyard (it was a Sunday trip with the family). This year, I was in Manhattan on Friday afternoon, departing Teterboro at rush hour. Shout out to the team at Meridian for great service (last time I used Signature, next time I'll go to Atlantic to spread the love).

For those who wish to join the call to see the breakdown by size class, the top 50 O/D pairs, and 50+ other airports, join the call at 3pm and I will walk through the complete deck.

Best Regards,